NASCAR Cup Series at Nashville: Predictions, odds and expert picks – The Athletic

We’re back after a one-week break, as the Cup Series heads to Nashville for the second year in a row. We got our resident experts, Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi, to help us sort how this track is a “superspeedway,” who is a worthwhile long shot (Spoiler: they both pick the same driver), does Kyle Larson need a “prove it” moment? And more!

1. Nashville calls itself a “superspeedway” but is actually only 1.33 miles long, which is shorter than the standard intermediate track but bigger than a short track. Who should we be looking at to do well on this course?

Jeff: This is only the Cup Series’ second visit to Nashville, so there’s not a lot of track history to lean on. We’re mostly left to figure out what kind of circuit it most closely resembles, which is probably up for debate. Being a concrete track, you could use the Dover race from May as a starting point while also keeping the recent race at 1.25-mile Gateway in mind. Either way, I wouldn’t expect any surprises; it’s going to be the usual drivers and teams who show up again with speed this weekend.

Jordan: Expect the same group of familiar faces to run up front Sunday. Barring unusual circumstances, Nashville is not a style of track conducive to a surprise winner emerging.

2. The drivers had a week off with no race last weekend. Would that benefit anyone? Is it a chance to reset, clear heads, do a bunch of tweaks?

Jeff: In a recent 12 Questions interview, young driver Carson Hocevar made the case that there’s no momentum in racing – and I tend to think he’s right. “You build the race cars the same way regardless, it’s just your emotions going to the racetrack,” Hocevar said. “It’s not actually changing the (car). It’s just the delusion we all tell ourselves.” So while I’m sure the off-week was a welcome development for everyone on the NASCAR grind, the cars don’t know that. And since the cars are still responsible for the majority of the performance, I can’t see how the off-week would have favored anyone more than others.

Jordan: One thing the off week affords is for crew chiefs and engineers to collectively assess what’s gone right, what’s gone wrong and how can we improve without knowing they also have a race to immediately prepare for that coming weekend. That has to count for something, even if there are limitations on what tweaks teams can make to the Next Gen car.

3. At what point do we need to see Kyle Larson actually win a race before we start thinking “maybe this just isn’t his year”? He’s been out of the top 10 in two of the last three races, yet here he is as the betting favorite (at 5-to-1) once again

Jeff: It’s been such a parity-filled season and the new car continues to challenge teams at each track they’re visiting for the first time, so the lack of a dominant driver isn’t surprising. There have been 12 different winners in the first 16 races and no three-time winners yet. But Larson certainly could win on any given week, just as he did at Nashville last season. It will sting not to have two key pit crew members and crew chief Cliff Daniels following their four-week suspensions for a wheel falling off at Sonoma, but teams have overcome that before (most recently Denny Hamlin in the Coca-Cola 600).

Jordan: It’s been an odd season for Kyle Larson, one where it’s a little surprising that he doesn’t have more wins and also one where he’s also been better than his stats indicate. The belief from this perspective is that Larson is poised to go on a run where he rolls something like two or three wins over a short stretch, firmly reasserting himself as the championship favorite.

4. Who’s a good long shot to target this week?

Jeff: This would certainly qualify as an upset, but I’d look at Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+5000, or 50-to-1, at BetMGM). If we’re going to say Dover’s concrete track gives us a hint for Nashville, then Stenhouse is worth considering because he finished second there and ran around the top five for most of Dover’s final stage. Again, am I expecting this to happen? No. But in terms of long shots, I’m not sure there’s a better one.

Jordan: Stenhouse is the pick here, too, because as Jeff noted, Stenhouse was fast at Dover. He also finished sixth here last year and scored points in each stage — albeit in a much different car. Another long shot option to consider is Erik Jones (+6600). Many times this season Jones has had speed to run inside the top 10, though he and his GMS Petty Racing team have struggled to convert that speed into consistent good finishes. Jones breaking through and pulling off a win would constitute a surprise, but not to the degree some may think.

5. Chevrolet is a big favorite to be the winning make. I that because the cars have been great this year, or because they have three premier drivers?

Jeff: Not to harp on the Dover thing too much, but Chevy had five of the top six finishers there. And if you’re looking at the Nashville race last year, Chevy swept the podium and its cars led 94.7 percent of the laps. I have a feeling the oddsmakers took both of those things into consideration, along with having fast cars all season in 2022.

Jordan: Hendrick Motorsports and Trackhouse Racing have been two of the most consistent teams this season, combining to win eight of 16 races. And it just so happens that each is backed by Chevrolet. So it’s logical to think  oddsmakers took this into consideration when setting the lines.

NOOB QUESTION of the WEEK!

In other sports, we see players come out of Bye Weeks or All Star Breaks renewed and re-energized. Is it the same for NASCAR?

Jeff: Maybe briefly, but it probably won’t last long. It’s such a marathon season that drivers must try and maintain an even keel from February to November rather than spending too much emotional energy on any one weekend. Otherwise, the burnout can come fast.

Jordan: Nah. The season is a grind and that the start of the playoffs are right around the corner means teams are either already preparing in earnest for the postseason or working hard to find an edge that will allow them to punch their playoff ticket. This is a long way to say that the break wasn’t all that much of a break.

Reading list

NASCAR’s drive to playoffs begins: Storylines, races and drivers to watch

Dale Earnhardt Jr. on what he’d do if he could go back in time and more: 12 Questions

“The Teardown” podcast

Cup Series at Nashville odds (@BetMGM)

Source: https://theathletic.com/3380955/2022/06/24/nascar-cup-series-at-nashville-predictions-odds-and-expert-picks/